Tips for Ascot: Best value bets on Saturday December 23

Gaillard du Mesnil is opposable at the prices in the NH Chase. Don’t think that race’s profile suits such a strong stayer any more. Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative – going slower could suit him. Mahler Mission ran a fair race (7th of 16) in last year’s Albert Bartlett and, though he was whacked in a novices’ chase at Cheltenham early in the season, that was surely a sighter on ground much faster than ideal. More recently he’s won a beginners’ and then ran a gallant second to Churchstonewarrior. The second possible in that context is I Like To Move It, whose Greatwood and Kingwell Hurdle wins have advertised his ‘dark horse’ claims.

• And in the absence of his Closutton mate and reigning champ of the past two years, Energumene, he shows at odds on to register a third victory in a row for that man Mullins, who – let’s not forget – had never won the QMCC prior to 2022.
• With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess.
• The horse is banks king Enda Bolger’s latest McManus project, and was revitalised by a first spin over ditches, wedges and all in the PP Hogan Memorial Chase – a key prep for this – last time.
• “We needed a lead-up run at Haydock, so she came over early, but just with the changing of seasons we wanted to be here before it was too cold in Australia and too warm over here.
• At the end I will delve briefly into Grade 1 contests only.
• To claim so of the best free bets from the most trusted bookies simple click on the offers below.
• I don’t know how we messed it up, but that’s behind us now.

David Pipe sends a rare runner on the 710-mile round trip to Newcastle on Thursday

Stablemate Winter Fog has been hit hard by the handicapper after an easy win on stable debut last time but is not without place appeal as a lightly raced type, despite being a nine-year-old. He ran fourth in last season’s Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle so is likely to be finishing strongly at this easier distance. The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (AW) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-71. The leading jockey in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Jimmy Styles (2009) and Redford (2010). Two jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Ayr Gold Cup, Paul Mulrennan has ridden 13 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst David Allan has ridden 12 without a winner.

Countdown to the Queen Mother Champion Chase

In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore – now Gallagher – i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win. Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.

Paqueta to miss game as he’s summoned to parliament amid betting probe

As a consequence, I went fishing for a wager in a different pond, the ‘without the favourite’ market. She’s now as big as 7/1 in that market, and in all honesty I’ve cooled on her prospects of running second to Honeysuckle (and therefore winning that bet) a little, though she still has grand claims of being in the first four. And Matt Tombs in his excellent matchbook content added that five of the 14 runners to start with a chase rating 7lb+ lower than their hurdle mark managed to win in the last 13 renewals.

Roksana – Stayers’ Hurdle – 7/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 8/1 Sky/Fred (NRNB)

The horse is banks king Enda Bolger’s latest McManus project, and was revitalised by a first spin over ditches, wedges and all in the PP Hogan Memorial Chase – a key prep for this – last time. There he won in a field of 17 which contained plenty of dead wood; so, too, will Day 2’s Cross Country field. He was effective rather than eye-catching in winning but that was his first cross-country effort in public.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Form Guide

• Telmesomethinggirl, who returned to hurdling this season after a stint over fences, looked rusty on her seasonal return at Leopardstown but was a lot better when a 1¼ length 2nd of four to Zarak The Brave at Naas last time.
• It’s such a thrilling sport and at its best when you get the chance to see the horses close up in the flesh.
• But the big opportunity in my view is with draw and run style in concert.
• If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible.
• MEETINGOFTHEWATERS is lightly raced and has a beautiful light weight.
• Second feature from Steve analysing handicaps and ratings following his insight into his work as a professional backer.

The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown. Not only is Kenny Alexander’s mare the reigning champ but she is also unbeaten in 14 career starts under Rules and, before that, a single point to point. The furlong shorter trip compared with the Irish Arkle might be a benefit to Blue Lord, whose credentials look most apparent of the Irish runners even though the eye was naturally drawn to Riviere d’Etel’s unlucky runner up effort there. Haut En Couleurs has plenty of untapped potential and could usurp the finishers from that race if standing up. The jockey – trainer’s son – is a slight concern, too, as he won’t be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it).

English Spirit

The Williams team have excellent contacts in France and have a long history of recruiting nice hurdlers from across the channel. I’d love him to be up there from the outset as there isn’t much pace elsewhere in the race and that looks the best scenario for Jack Tudor to get a truly run race to suit. It must be a recurring issue they keep having to tinker with. Of course, if a horse keeps running badly you’d be wise to give it a wide berth, but ignoring one or two bad runs can lead you to back winners at decent prices.

Two Cheltenham Festival Side Bets to Consider

Master Chewy is a bit of a punt but, if ridden patiently, he might be able to pick up the pieces… And if they go a million on the front then he could just nick the whole enchilada. Of course, he’s priced as though he has little chance and that may be how it transpires.

50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band. LH – Galopin Des Champs is a very likely winner but, at bigger prices, Ahoy Senor could have a perfect setup in this test. Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season. Strongly against A Plus Tard’s profile coming into the race. Even at his best, which we’ve not seen for a year, GdC would beat him anyway.

Breeders’ Cup sign up offers and deals as City of Troy chases history

Exhibit A to that end are the two races – both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company – in one month, the final month of last year. If that’s the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote. Any horse could come Bolts Up Daily down or have a heart murmur in the heat of combat; Shishkin could get beaten by Energumene; a previously unsighted dark horse could emerge in one of the novice chases (though that feels unlikely). Unlike CPS, EA has been slated to start twice and has started – and finished first – twice. He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.

• Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form.
• The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor.
• Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level.
• Back on the Flat, Make My Day ran a fine second to Super Superjack at Ascot in May before again taking the silver medal behind Black Kalanisi at Goodwood the following month.
• Once you’ve made your selection, click the odds button in line with your horse and a window will appear showing the best bookmakers in the industry to provide you with a choice of where to back it.
• Boasting the unusual accolade of being the only UK racecourse not to have a grandstand, Bangor-On-Dee stands alone amongst the wider racecourse population.
• Impressive he was, too, coming right away from a large field of maidens in spite of bungling the final flight.
• He’s been aggressively ascendant, rising from a rating of 139 at season start to his current 156; but that still leaves him with a stone and more to find when Honeysuckle’s mares’ allowance is incorporated.

The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021. Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more. For many, the Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of not just the National Hunt season, but the whole racing year, writes Dave Renham. In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at South Kensington Holiday Inn, London Racing Club’s annual ‘best of breed’ Cheltenham Preview Evening unfurled.

Horse Racing Tips: Timeform’s Friday fancies at Newmarket feature a 4/1 play

There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022. The first handicap of the week and one that normally goes to a runner close to the head of the market. Of the home team, Edwardstone’s case dwarfs his compatriots, though it is possible that War Lord may significantly reduce the margin by which he was beaten in December.

David Pipe has a terrific 8 from 75 record in the last decade in Festival handicap chases, for a small SP profit. Although most winners were clustered in the six to nine years bracket, neither youth nor experience has been a killer blow in handicap chases. Winners have emerged from across the spectrum, with the winning-most ages from a number of victories perspective being the losing-most from a betting perspective. Again, little of note here except that those novices aged nine or more running in Grade 1 novice races at the Festival have done poorly.

Irish runners versus UK runners

Delta Work is the reigning champ, having retained his crown a year ago, and bids for the three-peat (as they say across the pond – yuk). He’s knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn’t stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that’s better) at the same age. When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he’s prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him. He handles wet ground fine – it’s wetter on the infield track than the Old and New Courses – and knows his way home blindfold around there. I mean, I expect this to be well run and the top two in the market – who are clearly the best two horses in the field – have had persistent jumping frailties. While they’re comfortably the most likely pair for the exacta, that’s not the way to bet.

• In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago.
• While the more you know will generally enhance your chances of finding winners – and hence following this sport can give a lifetime of pleasure and achievement – even beginners can improve their odds by following a few simple rules.
• A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.
• GOD’S OWN Has some solid form in his record but is a light of former days and hard to fancy.
• That said, such a sound bite implies he’ll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.
• I cannot with clean conscience propose you bet anything in this race on my say so.

Not only is Monkfish unbeaten in three chase starts this term, he is also the reigning Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle champ, earning a hard-fought verdict over… That was his only visit to Cheltenham so he is unbeaten in one both at the track and at the Festival. OK, so that last one, and probably/hopefully the last two, are of no consequence to Cheltenham, mercifully; but the others have each caused some degree of consternation in the weeks and months preceding the Festival. With six days until tapes rise on the Supreme, we can hope that all will hereafter be more serene, barring the perennial raft of late scratches and shock race switcheroos.

She will also have to prove her stamina on this first attempt beyond two miles, her pedigree not guaranteeing she’ll stay. Queen’s Brook will be Gordon Elliott’s hope for the race, the mare having run third in the 2020 Champion Bumper behind Ferny Hollow before skipping last year’s Festival. Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.

Racing to the second last he switched to the outside, found some better ground and a bit of daylight, and in a few strides had gathered in all but Min. The bookmakers early mark up on the races of interest is too far tilted in their favour. I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever.

Then we head to Wales for the two meetings on Tuesday with good prize money on offer at Bangor and further south for Chepstow. Decent jumping ground at both with course alterations affecting the official distances. Horse race gambling is the cornerstone of the sports betting world, and has been for the best part of a century.

The Glancing Queen will no doubt be well fancied for the feature race, but she hasn’t been the soundest jumper over hurdles and is worth opposing on her chase debut. Donald McCain is on a tremendous run of form (35% Strike Rate last 14 days) and there is every reason to believe she could add to the stables recent successes. If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend – he’s currently a best priced 4/9 so to do – he’ll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn’t run, he’ll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. But, like I say, I think he’s a more robust animal this season, and I’m prepared to back that perception.

He stays well, has class and is proven at the track and the Festival. Although it’s only a small chink in his profile it does give us some hope that we can get one of these Mullins hotpots beaten. Our horse racing racecards service is aimed to help you, the punter. It’s designed to give you an easy guide to today’s racing fixtures. We only show races which have yet to be run – all past races can be found in our Results section. The racecards are listed in time order and include all today’s horse racing fixtures for the UK & Ireland, including the biggest festivals like Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown, Royal Ascot and Goodwood.

You can also see the odds currently on offer and some of the ones that have been offered previously. Always keep an eye on any new sites that might be launching, as they can truly offer you some great betting experiences. However, you also need to make sure that you are getting good odds alongside that. Cross-referencing with some of the more well-established bookies will help to confirm that you are indeed getting a good deal for your money’s worth. Never opt for poor odds simply because you have a deal to use – there is always going to be something better out there. Those who are new to the world of horse racing might find that there is a lot of terminology that gets thrown about here.

Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here.

Paul Nicholls has a very good record in handicap hurdles, too, in contrast to his Grade 1 performance in recent seasons. But the likes of Evan Williams and Charlie Longsdon (0 from 31, 0 places, between them), Noel Meade and Dr Richard Newland (0 from 27, 3 places, collectively) are probably best passed up. Naturally, then, the other 50 winners came from horses priced at 16/1 or shorter, the 381 such runners losing just 31 points at SP, and breaking even at BSP.

Taking 4-1 as an example, a successful £1 bet would yield a return of £5 – the £4 winnings plus the stake. A horse with a string of 1s by their name is likely to be a lot shorter in the betting than one with 0s, for example. Fresh always runs his race but may lack a yard of pace these days. Two Tempting finished ahead of a few of these at Chester and is always underestimated in the betting.

“I wouldn’t complain at Alexis (Pouchin); I’m happy with the ride, but he started galloping the last 200 metres when he had the gap. When he saw the horse coming along it was too late, the other two went already. But it was good to see that he is of the level to run with the best. “I just really hope the that one day they go a really good gallop so that we get to see him really show his true potential. At the moment he’s just showing how versatile he really is. POLITOLOGUE Has enjoyed a fine season but was no match for Altior at Newbury recently; tough and consistent, he has place prospects. DOUVAN Suffered serious injury in this race a year ago and not run since; hugely talented but remains to be seen if he can recover that level of form.

California Gem disappointed in fourth that afternoon but made amends in a Ripon maiden 12 days later, defeating Boom Boom Pow by three-quarters of a length. But the son of Vadamos came out on top that day, and has repeated the feat in one-mile contests on three of his six subsequent starts. After third placings at Pontefract and Newmarket in April, Eilean Dubh was back in business at Hamilton Park the following month and followed up in a big field at York a fortnight later.

Shishkin is undeniably more of a horse than Footpad, and a tear up on the front end could see him record the largest winning distance of the meeting. He was never more than two or three lengths off the lead. In 2020, Al Boum Photo raced midfield but never more than about five lengths from a lead shared without contest; and the previous year, the same horse was ridden more patiently after a number of rivals battled for early primacy.

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In that context, Shishkin – who has won all of his completed starts, by 8L, 11L, 11L, a neck, 23L, 13L, and 8.5L – looks very fairly priced at 10/3 to win the Arkle by six lengths or more. His trainer is having a wobble just now but knows better than anyone – even Willie M – how to campaign a precocious two-mile chaser. Having ticked the race conditions boxes, and with a pace setup almost certain to play to his A game, he looks a ‘banker’ (relatively speaking). Plenty to chew on in the above ahead of what looks an open and fascinating betting puzzle.

Buick has strong claims of landing a double with REBEL’S ROMANCE, the favourite for the Group 3L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes (4.10). The Irish are an integral part of the congregation worshiping at jump racing’s cathedral, and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it when that country unites behind an “Irish banker”. Some of Cheltenham’s greatest scenes have been provided by the likes of Istabraq, Like A Butterfly and Danoli, and our friends from across the water are throwing the kitchen sink behind Samcro. Lazuli (1.50) is a sprinter going places and should be able to land the Coral Charge after his brilliant victory in the Scurry Stakes last time.